Ontario's 2026 Fall Economic Statement misses the mark
On Thursday, October 29, the Conservative government released its Fall Economic Statement (FES), also known as the mini budget.
An NDP government would present a Fall Economic Statement that invests wisely in public infrastructure and services to create good jobs and brings in measures to make life more affordable, like no tax on groceries and a rent freeze.
What the Conservatives delivered was a mega tax cut for big business, and cuts to the public services we rely on.
Here is what you should know about the 2026 Fall Economic Statement:
Housing
Housing starts continue to decline, with the FES predicting 64,700 starts in 2026, well below what is needed to meet demand.
The Conservatives have given developers and big landlords everything they've asked for in a desperate effort to jumpstart housing construction – from exempting HST on all new builds to reducing development charges. It hasn’t worked. Housing starts have declined every year since 2022.
To spur the right kind of housing construction, Ontario needs a public builder responsible for building and financing the construction of 30,000 affordable and non-profit homes a year. This initiative will protect and create jobs in the construction sector, help fix homelessness, and make homes more affordable to rent or own.
Health care
Overall, health spending is projected to increase from $97.5 billion last year to $100.7 billion in 2026-27. That's an increase of $3.2 billion, or 3.3%.
Is that enough money to maintain existing service levels, given rising costs and population growth? No. The Financial Accountability Office (FAO) estimates that health spending needs to grow by an average of 4.4% annually over the next three years just to maintain existing service levels.
The FAO has projected a $2 billion funding shortfall in 2027-28, growing to $3.8 billion in 2028-29, based on the government's spring budget.
The Conservatives are continuing to fund their Primary Care Action Plan to connect everyone with a primary care provider by 2029, however doctor retention remains a huge issue as retirement rates are high. The OMA estimates up to 2.5 million people do not have a family doctor.
There are substantial investments in hospital construction, however, funding for hospital operations, which include staffing, remains below the rate of inflation and growing need.
Healthcare needs wise investment to ensure people have a primary care provider, and they can be diagnosed and treated quickly through the public health care system.
If you need a doctor’s appointment. If you are waiting for surgery. If you make that tough decision to visit an emergency room because you are in pain and you don’t know why. Then our public health care system should be there to quickly diagnose and treat you.
Public education
Ontario's public schools are facing yet another cut.
The FES projects $40.2 billion in base education spending this year, compared with $40.1 billion last year. That is an increase of less than 1%, well below projected inflation of 2.3%.
We are reeling from the consequences of the removal of $6.3 billion from our public schools. Teachers have been laid off in low-income schools. Class sizes are very large, sometimes over the maximum allowable size. Many school cafeterias, pools, and outdoor education centers have closed. Kindergarten classes for high-needs kids have been shuttered. As you’d expect, learning outcomes are declining. Too many kids are not meeting the official learning benchmark for math and English.
Colleges, universities, and student financial assistance
Funding for post-secondary education is hemorrhaging.
Spending on colleges, universities and student financial assistance is falling by $1.2 billion, from $13.9 billion in 2026–27 to $12.7 billion in 2027–28.
Student financial assistance is falling by approximately $500 million in 2026–27 compared with the previous year.
This is an addition to the drastic changes the Conservatives made to the Ontario Student Assistance Program, where students were once often mostly grants are now offered loans with interest.
Jobs and the economy
Our economy is struggling. Economic growth is pegged at just 0.5% this year, and over 700 000 Ontarians are unemployed.
The Conservatives have mostly focused on tax cuts and loans to big business, mostly with no strings attached. The centerpiece of the FES is the government’s new Ontario Competitiveness Tax Cut, which will permit businesses to write off the cost of some new capital equipment purchased after September 2026.
A corporate tax break will certainly increase corporate profit, but there’s little evidence that shows CEOs will then turn around and hire more people or upgrade their factory - unless they are required to.
We are calling for increased investment in public services and public infrastructure, because this kind of investment generates growth, creates good jobs, and helps people at the same time.
I also want to see stronger Buy Ontario rules so government is purchasing more goods and services from Ontario businesses. Right now, our rules are very weak.
I want to see real strings attached to any government investment given to industry, like job guarantees and an ownership stake in companies of importance.
Ontario's growing deficit and debt
The Conservatives promised fiscal discipline, but the latest numbers show Ontario's deficit and debt continuing to grow.
The government's deficit is now projected to reach $16.9 billion this year, an increase of $3.1 billion from last forecast. Ontario's total debt is on track to exceed half a trillion dollars.
The Conservatives have no honest and credible debt-reduction plan. They need one.
Conclusion
That’s our roundup of the Fall Economic Statement. I will be debating this bill in the legislature in the coming week. I encourage you to send written feedback to me so I can share it directly with the Conservative MPPs at Queen’s Park.